[ppzhan summary] This week, the papermaking sector underperformed the broader market: this week, the papermaking sector fell 6.77%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 3.84%, the sector underperformed the broader market by 2.93 percentage points. The sector has weakened since the end of 2011 and has recently rebounded following the broader market. The cyclical characteristics are obvious.
This week, the price of paper was flat, the price of pulp rose, and the paper price fell this week. The price of the market was basically flat. The market sentiment was strong: Chenming Paper, APP or the price of coated paper was 100-200 yuan/ton, Xiaolong and Liwen The plan to increase the price of cardboard paper is 100-200 yuan / ton, some double-adhesive paper manufacturers also plan to adjust the price of 200 yuan / ton; due to increased shipping costs, tight supply and other factors, the price of pulp is more likely to rise; waste paper prices are The performance was slightly down. As the price of raw materials rises steadily and the market is bullish, it is expected that the price of paper will rebound to a certain extent in the later period.
The output of all kinds of papers rebounded, and the import volume of pulp increased greatly: the output of papers in February increased by a certain degree compared with the same period of last year, mainly due to seasonal factors; the number of days of paper stocks decreased slightly, and the inventory of dealers was slightly supplemented. However, the overall inventory level is still at a high level; in February, pulp imports have increased significantly; global wood pulp stocks have declined, European wood pulp consumption has increased, and stocks have declined.
2011 profit bottoming, it is expected that there is no significant improvement in the first quarter: demand in the first quarter of 2012 is still sluggish, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is large. Although the output has rebounded seasonally, the paper price rise is weak, indicating that the demand side has not really recovered. Under this circumstance, we estimate that the first quarter revenue increased by 9.97% year-on-year, the total profit was basically flat, the gross profit margin was 11.28%, and the profit margin was 4.12%.
In 2012, the capacity expansion was relatively strong, maintaining the industry's “neutral†rating: According to estimates, the total industry capacity in 2012 was 115.95 million tons, an increase of 9.5%; the demand was 105.84 million tons, an increase of 6.9%, and the capacity growth rate was greater than the demand growth rate. The industry boom or further deterioration, maintaining the industry's "neutral" rating. Among them, the paper types with large capacity expansion are whiteboard and cardboard, while newsprint is relatively moderate. Focus on Sun Paper, Yueyang Paper, Chenming Paper, and Bohui Paper.
Risk warning: 1. The price of raw materials is rising; 2. The new capacity is intensively placed.
This week, the price of paper was flat, the price of pulp rose, and the paper price fell this week. The price of the market was basically flat. The market sentiment was strong: Chenming Paper, APP or the price of coated paper was 100-200 yuan/ton, Xiaolong and Liwen The plan to increase the price of cardboard paper is 100-200 yuan / ton, some double-adhesive paper manufacturers also plan to adjust the price of 200 yuan / ton; due to increased shipping costs, tight supply and other factors, the price of pulp is more likely to rise; waste paper prices are The performance was slightly down. As the price of raw materials rises steadily and the market is bullish, it is expected that the price of paper will rebound to a certain extent in the later period.
The output of all kinds of papers rebounded, and the import volume of pulp increased greatly: the output of papers in February increased by a certain degree compared with the same period of last year, mainly due to seasonal factors; the number of days of paper stocks decreased slightly, and the inventory of dealers was slightly supplemented. However, the overall inventory level is still at a high level; in February, pulp imports have increased significantly; global wood pulp stocks have declined, European wood pulp consumption has increased, and stocks have declined.
2011 profit bottoming, it is expected that there is no significant improvement in the first quarter: demand in the first quarter of 2012 is still sluggish, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is large. Although the output has rebounded seasonally, the paper price rise is weak, indicating that the demand side has not really recovered. Under this circumstance, we estimate that the first quarter revenue increased by 9.97% year-on-year, the total profit was basically flat, the gross profit margin was 11.28%, and the profit margin was 4.12%.
In 2012, the capacity expansion was relatively strong, maintaining the industry's “neutral†rating: According to estimates, the total industry capacity in 2012 was 115.95 million tons, an increase of 9.5%; the demand was 105.84 million tons, an increase of 6.9%, and the capacity growth rate was greater than the demand growth rate. The industry boom or further deterioration, maintaining the industry's "neutral" rating. Among them, the paper types with large capacity expansion are whiteboard and cardboard, while newsprint is relatively moderate. Focus on Sun Paper, Yueyang Paper, Chenming Paper, and Bohui Paper.
Risk warning: 1. The price of raw materials is rising; 2. The new capacity is intensively placed.
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