North American Supercalendered Paper and Lightweight Paper Market Outlook

With the rapid acceptance of the Internet, the print media market in North America encountered difficulties just when it reached maturity. This is the opinion of Roman Hohol's 10th edition of International Pulp and Paper (PPI) and commercial paper conference held in London.
Some people believe that the Internet is only one of a large number of competitors that threaten print media. They said that printing had been tampered with the "awesome" modulation of radios and televisions, and the Internet was different. This may be the case, but Hohol thinks that the acceptance of the Internet is unprecedented, surpassing all previous technologies and has reached 50 million users in North America. Internet users in the first five years of the Internet have reached as many users in the first 40 years.
Recently, Forrester Research, a new media consultancy, pointed out that print media will coexist with its electronic rivals, and users are increasing their use of new media. The main findings of their latest published research results are as follows:
1. The use of the Internet has reduced the consumption of traditional media consumers. The amount of newspapers and household magazines read by consumers is less than that of non-access users. The longer consumers spend online, the less attention they pay to non-online media.
2. This will also lead to an increase in the consumption of traditional media. More business newspapers and science, mourning, and news magazines for online consumers will read more than those without Internet access. The longer a consumer spends online, the higher his attention to online resources.
Hohol said that an important factor is how much advertising revenue the Internet will attract. Although estimates vary, the three forecasters believe Internet advertising revenue will reach $14.6 billion to $22.2 billion in 2004. This will account for 5-8% of all advertising spending in the United States in 2004.
If the past was only a prologue, in the next 10 years or more, the North American Super Calendered Paper (SC) and Lightweight Coated (LWC) markets will be affected by the following five trends:
1. The maturity of the end-user market for print media;
2. Increased competitive pressure from non-print media, especially the Internet;
3. The constant emergence of new technologies for information transfer 4. Industry continued mergers and globalization 5. The demand for profitable growth According to Hohol, based on the above trends, there may be three different developments:
1. The quality and service of all paper varieties will be more commoditized; only price can be used as a distinction.
2. Due to competition from non-print media, the requirements for print fidelity, transparency, gloss, whiteness and smoothness will increase.
3. The demand for lighter, stronger papers will increase, which means that the reduction in consumer tonnage and the increase in durability will become problems for printers.
Mergers and globalization in the industry will lead to fewer, larger, and more international suppliers, which means that buyers' choices will be reduced and end users will need to find suitable paper sources worldwide. Europe’s three largest manufacturers accounted for 2/3.ERQX of European supercalendered paper/mechanical coated paper production capacity in 2000, and two of them recently conducted large-scale mergers and acquisitions in North America, so now North America ranked second and third coated wood pulp product manufacturers are all European.
Finally, Hohol pointed out that the need for end-users to increase profits will increase the demand for low-quality paper. Future end-users will seek more value from their paper suppliers. This will make the purchasing expenditure of paper closely related to the end use of the product. All end users will seek the most cost-effective products without sacrificing print quality and durability. The management of services and supply chains will be more important, and the status of product composition will decline.
Looking ahead, consumption of supercalendered and coated groundwood paper in North America is expected to slow in the next 10 years. Looking back, the annual growth rate in the 1980s was 7.6%, and it was only 2.9% by the 1990s. The consumption of supercalendered paper/lightweight paper for all major users in North America declined. In the new century, the growth rate is expected to be 1.8%/year.
At the same time, due to market demand and technological innovation, the traditional product structure is also changing. End-users are looking for low-cost alternatives that do not sacrifice print performance and durability. Papermakers use new technologies to produce new products to meet market demand.
Hohol said that in the environment where the market is slowing down, some products may be long-lasting. The three best prospects for the next 10 years are: SC-A/SC-A+, ultra-light coated paper (below 58.8 GSM) and No. 3 coated ground paper.
The 10th Annual Press and Business Paper Conference was organized by the International Pulp and Paper (PPI) and was held at the Radisson SAS Portman Hotel in London from November 6th to 7th, 2000.